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Challenges in ENSO Prediction: Initialization uncertainties and Model inadequacies
来源:LASG    访问次数:    报告时间:2017-5-10
【报告人】        Dr. Jieshun Zhu
【报告人单位】ESSIC, University of Maryland
【报告时间】    2017年5月10日(星期三)10:00
【报告地点】    科研楼303会议室
【报告简介】    Since initial attempts by Cane et al. around three decades ago, the ability of dynamical models to predict the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has improved significantly. Operationalseasonal ENSO predictions now become routinein many major climate centers worldwide by using coupled general circulation models (CGCMs)with sophisticated initialization schemes.On occasions, however, our ENSO predictions can still have notable failures and the forecasts are not yet reliable, two notable examples being the false alarms in 2012 and 2014. In this talk, I will discuss the challenges in ENSO prediction by focusing on initialization uncertainties and model inadequacies. Particularly, I will present results about the role of salinity initialization in ENSO prediction, the contribution of off-equatorial SST anomalies (some signals that could be realistically represented by present CGCMs because of biases in representing thermodynamical process) in 2014 El Niño false alarm, and the importance of atmospheric convection parameterization in ENSO prediction.
 
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