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Seasonal to Decadal Predictability and the North Atlantic Oscillation
来源:LASG    访问次数:    报告时间:2016-12-2
【报告人】        Dr. Rosie Eade
【报告人单位】Met Office Hadley Centre, UK
【报告时间】    2016年12月2日(星期五)9:30
【报告地点】    科研楼303会议室
【报告简介】    

Abstract

Seasonal to decadal predictions are inevitably uncertain - these uncertainties can be accounted for using ensemble techniques. In a perfect system, each ensemble member would represent a potential realization of the true evolution of the climate system, and the predictable components in models and reality would be equal. However, we show that the predictable component is sometimes lower in models than observations, especially for seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In these cases the forecasts are under-confident, with each ensemble member containing too much noise. Consequently, most deterministic and probabilistic measures under-estimate potential skill and idealized model experiments under-estimate predictability. However, skilful and reliable predictions may be achieved using a large ensemble to reduce noise, with results shown here for the NAO.

 
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