中国科学院 | 大气所 | 网站地图 | 加入收藏
首 页  | | | 论文论著 | | 科学传播 | English  
  新闻信息
最新消息
新闻搜索
最新消息 您当前所在的位置: 首页 > 新闻信息 > 最新消息
Prof. Suraje Dessai(Univ. Leeds)在我室报告
来源:LASG    访问次数:    更新时间:2018-7-2

Improving the treatment of uncertainty in Climate Services in China

Prof. Suraje Dessai
University of Leeds, UK

科研楼303会议室
2018年7月2日(星期一)10:00

Abstract
 
The development of successful climate services at multiple timescales depends critically on the characterisation and communication of uncertain and contested scientific knowledge and ignorance. Uncertainty in seasonal climate forecasts arises from multiple sources (e.g. initial conditions, emission scenarios, natural variability, model parameters, observations, human judgement). If these uncertainties are not adequately characterised and conveyed to those applying this information to decision making, then this may result in a false sense of certainty, leading to maladaptive decision making and ultimately a loss of trust in providers. It is therefore important to develop evidence-based guidance on the treatment of uncertainty for climate service providers.

This research uses expert elicitation to characterise predictability and sources of uncertainty from seasonal forecasts and multi-decadal projections over the Yangtze region of China. We will present our initial results from over thirty elicitations with the world’s leading experts in these two fields, eliciting both quantitative (e.g. probability ranges) and qualitative information. Judgements regarding the overall extent of seasonal predictability and relative importance of regional factors varied between experts. Our multi-decadal findings indicate high confidence that there will be an increase in temperature in this region in coming decades. However, estimates of mid-century and end of century precipitation changes varied substantially in terms of both sign and ranges.

 
© 1997-2010 大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室 版权所有 京ICP备06004370号
北京9804信箱LASG 邮编:100029 传真:82995172