New Advances in Land Carbon Cycle Modeling
Prof. Yiqi Luo (骆亦其)
Northern Arizona University, USA、清华大学
The trajectory of land carbon stocks and fluxes has tremendous implications for predicting future climates. The three largest components of uncertainty for climate forecasting are (1) future fossil fuel emissions, (2) physical climate sensitivity and (3) the future behavior of land C sources and sinks. To date, the magnitude of the land C sink has been indirectly deduced, by combining analyses of atmospheric CO2 concentrations with ocean observations to infer the net land C flux. In contrast, when knowledge about the terrestrial C cycle is integrated into different ESMs, they make widely different predictions, either in direction or magnitude, and fit observations poorly. In this talk, I will introduce our recent work related to the new mathematic foundation for land carbon storage dynamics; a matrix approach to land carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus modeling; a unified diagnostic system for full understanding of uncertainty sources; carbon cycle data assimilation system with both flux- and pool-based data; and semi-analytic spin-up for computational efficiency.